Putin Sees Ceasefire as a Win as Trump Hands Him a Series of Victories.

The ceasefire in the Russian occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky is welcome news for civilians trapped by desperate shortages of food and fuel. But it's also a gift to Vladimir Putin not because he's a humanitarian, as US envoy Steve Witkoff described him, but because it serves his propaganda and political interests in a war he has never genuinely sought to end.

The US First Lady, Melania Trump, reportedly negotiated the ceasefire, and she deserves credit for any lives saved in a town where residents were said to be eating grass rather than risk the "road of death" to find supplies. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is eager to polish its humanitarian image. "The main thing is that humanitarian aid is now reaching the people," said Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

But the Oleshky ceasefire is only one of several recent wins for Putin. Trump's decision to suspend some sanctions on Russian oil exports reportedly aimed at lowering US diesel prices ahead of midterm elections signaled a willingness to do business with Moscow. Trump's request that Russia and Ukraine stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure was quickly ignored, despite Kyiv's growing success in striking Russian oil refineries.

More alarming for Kyiv: in mid-October, Starlink and Starshield the civilian and military internet services run by Elon Musk's SpaceX were hit with operating restrictions. Musk initially blamed the Pentagon, then said Ukraine had violated terms of service. At the same time, the US paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv, which Ukraine relies on for early warning of Russian missile strikes.

Putin seized the moment. According to analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reported by the Telegraph, Russia nearly doubled its strikes on Ukraine between 12 and 24 October launching some 4,003 strikes compared with 2,527 in the preceding 12 days. Interceptions dropped, particularly after the intelligence sharing pause. At least six people died in Russian missile attacks on Kyiv on 20 October.

The systems appear to be working normally again in Ukraine for now. But many see the disruption as a warning. Putin, who called Musk "a genius" on 28 October, may be hoping to provoke further politically or commercially driven decisions that undermine Kyiv.

Witkoff's flattery of Putin, the sanctions relief, and the pressure on Kyiv all point to growing distance between the US on one side and the UK and Europe on the other exactly the kind of split Putin hopes to exploit. Reuters has reported that the US told some European NATO allies to "tone down" anti-Russian rhetoric.

The Oleshky ceasefire should be welcomed for the lives it saves, but it is exceptional and no sign of a wider peace. Neither side wants to offend the First Lady. Putin is not ready for peace and some reports suggest Russia could use the pause to prepare a renewed offensive on Kherson, the southern city Ukraine recaptured in 2022.

If that happens, it would be yet another display of the brutal cynicism of Putin's Russia. But judging by Trump's record, Putin probably isn't losing sleep over it.